Away · 2–4 (0–3 SEC)

Arkansas

Razorbacks
AT
Home · 3–3 (0–3 SEC)

Vanderbilt

Commodores
Saturday, Oct. 17, 20266:00 p.m. CT / 7:00 p.m. ETFirstBank Stadium · NashvilleESPN2Vanderbilt −6O/U 50.5

Both teams are winless in the SEC, and the loser finishes the week alone in last place. It is Vanderbilt's homecoming — its first home night SEC game since 2022 — and Arkansas's first trip to Nashville since 2011.

The call

Home field, the steadier kicker, a pass rush matched against Arkansas's weakest unit, and the cleaner quarterback tip a coin-flip game toward Vanderbilt — but both teams are turnover-prone and skidding, and the projection lands under both the −6 spread and the 50.5 total.

Projected final
24—20

Vanderbilt by four

Vanderbilt's advantages — home field on homecoming night, the better quarterback, pressure against Arkansas's leakiest unit, and the steadier kicker — outweigh a heavier injury list and a three-game losing streak. Arkansas's defense is genuinely improved and keeps it ugly, but 19.3 points per game rarely wins on the road in the SEC, and a long conference losing streak reflects a program still learning to finish.

Why it lands there

  1. 01Special teams and field position. Brock Taylor (92.9% in 2025, long 51, with 39/47/45 makes vs Auburn in 2026 logs; 31/35 over the past two seasons) vs. Arkansas's punting — last of 18 SEC punters by PFF grade (65th of 70 P4), with the head coach publicly threatening a change and the starter out for the season. The one genuinely lopsided unit comparison in the game.
  2. 02Turnovers decide it — if anyone forces one. Vanderbilt is sloppier (see the two source estimates below), but Arkansas has forced only 7 takeaways in 6 games and hasn't won a turnover battle all season. If Vanderbilt merely plays even, its home offense has the cleaner path; if Vanderbilt is −2 or worse, Arkansas wins — that's the upset script.
  3. 03Vanderbilt's pass rush against Arkansas's pass protection. A sack in 10 straight games meets 16 sacks allowed (124th in havoc allowed) and a line down two starters. If Vanderbilt lives in Jackson's lap, an offense averaging 19.3 points stalls completely.
  4. 04Arkansas's road form vs. the Marshall problem. The Hogs have been blown out in both road games (77–17 combined) and their passing game is Chris Marshall-or-bust (42 catches, 605 yards). Vanderbilt's secondary is depleted, but with Hight probable and Carter doubtful, it can bracket Marshall late while Arkansas's 52% red-zone TD rate limits the payoff.
  5. 05Both run games are broken — one gets bailed out. Neither team cracks 120 rushing yards per game, but Arkansas allows 4.4 per carry and 17 rushing TDs, one of the few fronts Vanderbilt's 118th-ranked ground game might push.
−6Spread: Vanderbilt (BetMGM)
50.5O/U total
27–20SportsJaw: Vanderbilt
28–22NATR 10k sims: Vanderbilt
Confidence: Arkansas source — LOW. Vanderbilt source — Medium (low end). A coin-flip game where special teams and one turnover swing it. Other models: numberFire Vanderbilt 53.4% win prob · Southwest Times Vanderbilt 24–20 · Tennessean Vanderbilt 24–14 · CFN Arkansas 27–23. Series note: the under is 6–1 in the last seven meetings. Line note: a second check (Oct 16–17) had the total in a 49.5–50.5 range and the moneyline at Vanderbilt −225 / Arkansas +185 vs. −235 / +190 above.

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Both source pages read these battles differently in six of eight — contested cards carry both views honestly. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Arkansas QB vs Vanderbilt pass D

Vanderbilt · slight
KJ Jackson
Comp.59.8%
Yards / att.6.4–6.5
TD–INT7–4
Rating / QBR122.5 / 46.9
Vanderbilt coverage
Pass yds allowed214.0/g
Coverage efficiency#32
INT5
SecondaryLackey out, Carter doubtful

Read: Both sources agree — slight edge to Vanderbilt's pass defense. Jackson is steadier but capped (QBR 46.9, 15th in the SEC), and the real problem is protection: 16 sacks allowed for 120 yards, with Jackson himself sacked 12 times. Coverage (#32) far outranks Vanderbilt's pass rush (#115).

Arkansas source: 110/184 for 1,193 yds (team total 1,369), 6.4 YPA (116th). Vanderbilt source: Hight probable to return; CJ Heard recorded the team's 5th INT.

Vanderbilt QB vs Arkansas pass D

Contested
Jared Curtis
Comp.63.1%
Yards / att.7.4
TD–INT5–5
Rating / QBR130.6 / 57.9
Arkansas coverage
Pass yds allowed202.8/g
Yds / att allowed8.0
INT3
Comp. allowed65.4%
Arkansas view: WashTurnover-prone freshman vs. a defense that doesn't force picks — they cancel out.
Vanderbilt view: VanderbiltThe better passer by every proxy (57.9 QBR, 11th in the SEC) faces a defense conceding 65.4% completions with only 3 INTs — and Curtis is not on the injury report after missing the Georgia game with a knee bruise.

Read: Curtis's volatility is the variable: a strip-sack fumble plus two tipped-ball INTs vs Ole Miss (19/32, 222 yds), replaced late by Berlowitz — who is now out. Arkansas DC Ron Roberts praised the "big-league arm… cannon" before the season.

Arkansas source: through 4 games 63/98 (64.3%), 746 yds, 135.6 rating; 968 yds over 5 games. Vanderbilt source: EPA/dropback 0.14; 131 rush yds on the season; 64 rush yds vs NC State.

Arkansas RBs vs Vanderbilt front

Contested
Arkansas rushing
Yards / game99.0
Yards / carry3.0
Rush TD5
Lead backsSmith 50–166 · Russell 44–154
Vanderbilt front
Allowed / game139.5
Allowed / carry4.1 (Ark view) / ~3.8–3.9 (Van view)
DL statusBryant, Jefferson out; Allen, Bray questionable
Arkansas view: WashWeak vs. weakened — neither unit can impose itself.
Vanderbilt view: Vanderbilt, slightNo Hog back has topped 175 yards all season; a depleted but ranked-65th front holds serve against 3.0 yards per carry.

Read: A 130th-ranked run game against a 65th-ranked (by allowed yards) run defense missing two linemen. Cam Settles (32–131, 4.1 per carry) is the only Arkansas back above 3.5.

Arkansas source: 594 total rush yds; run-def efficiency #102 for Vanderbilt (Vanderbilt source).

Vanderbilt RBs vs Arkansas front

Contested
Vanderbilt rushing
Yards / game119.8
Yards / carry~3.0
Lead backsAlexander 152 yds thru Wk 3 · Young 9–37
Vs FBSNever topped 132 yds
Arkansas front
Allowed / game149.5
Allowed / carry4.4
Rush TD allowed17
DL statusJ'Lynn Allen out (season)
Arkansas view: Arkansas, slightOnly because Vanderbilt's run game has shown so little.
Vanderbilt view: Even — bad vs bad115th in rushing success rate allowed (Action Network) — one of the few fronts Vanderbilt might push. 17 rushing TDs allowed is the softest unit on either side.

Read: Vanderbilt ranked 118th rushing and managed 2.8 per carry at Auburn, but Arkansas's run defense is the most exploitable unit on the field. Whichever bad run game finds a pulse controls the clock.

Vanderbilt source: Jamezell Lassiter 6–20, 1 TD. Arkansas source: <3.0 YPC in SEC play for Vanderbilt.

Arkansas WR/TE vs Vanderbilt DBs

Contested
Arkansas targets
Marshall42 rec · 605 yds · 2 TD
Second optionNone over 12 rec / 103 yds
TE depthLassiter out; Garretson doubtful
JordanProbable
Vanderbilt DBs
LackeyOut
CarterDoubtful
HightProbable
HeardTeam's 5th INT
Arkansas view: ArkansasOne-man show, but it's the one matchup Arkansas can stress — a depleted secondary facing Marshall (100.8 yds/game).
Vanderbilt view: VanderbiltCoverage efficiency is #32; with Hight back, Vanderbilt can bracket Marshall late and make Arkansas win with someone it hasn't all season.

Read: The matchup that decides whether Arkansas stays in it. Marshall gets his — the question is whether anyone else gets theirs.

Vanderbilt WR/TE vs Arkansas DBs

Vanderbilt · slight
Vanderbilt targets
Sherrill33 rec · 529 yds
Catch streak43 games (longest in FBS)
Career yds2,017
DepthBarnett dismissed; Kahden Smith out
Arkansas DBs
Braydon LeeOut
Comp. allowed65.4%
Tackles leaderBogle 44

Read: Both sources agree — slight edge to Vanderbilt. Curtis-to-Sherrill is Vanderbilt's cleanest path to points against a thin secondary missing Braydon Lee.

TE Jayvontay Conner also in the mix. WR Kayleb Barnett was dismissed from the program on 10/12 (off-field), not an injury.

Arkansas OL vs Vanderbilt DL

Contested
Arkansas protection
Sacks allowed16 (−120 yds)
Havoc allowed124th
TFL allowed37
OL statusClemons doubtful; Kitler uncertain
Vanderbilt pressure
Sacks~2.5/g · 14 through 5 games
Pass-rush efficiency#115
StreakSack in 10 straight games
DL statusBryant out (ACL); Allen, Bray questionable
Arkansas view: WashBoth lines are banged up and underperforming — they cancel out.
Vanderbilt view: VanderbiltA reliable pass rush attacks Arkansas's biggest weakness: the 124th-ranked havoc-allowed rate and 16 sacks allowed.

Read: The game's clearest trench mismatch on paper — if the questionable Commodore linemen play. Caden Kitler (broken bone; benched at half vs Tennessee) is the swing piece for Arkansas.

Vanderbilt source: Miles Capers 2 sacks vs Ole Miss (10.5 career); TFL: Vandy defense 4.2/game.

Vanderbilt OL vs Arkansas DL

Contested
Vanderbilt protection
Pass-block rank#126
Sacks allowed2.0/g
TFL allowed5.2/g
OL statusGivens, M. Smith out
Arkansas pressure
Sacks9 (−79 yds)
TFL24
House / Rhodes5 TFL, 2 sacks / 3 sacks
DL statusJ'Lynn Allen out (season)
Arkansas view: WashWeak protection meets a modest pass rush — they cancel out.
Vanderbilt view: Arkansas, slightArkansas's pressure is distributed (House, Rhodes) and meets a line ranked #126 in pass blocking, even if the raw rush is modest.

Read: Both fronts' weakest links meet. If Vanderbilt's tackles hold, Curtis gets the time Arkansas's line can't buy Jackson.

Possession pressure

Arkansas is essentially break-even at −1. The two sources disagree on how bad Vanderbilt's margin is — both versions are shown exactly as their source wrote them, because one is built from per-game rates and the other is an estimate built from confirmed pieces.

Arkansas margin−1

8 giveaways / 7 takeaways

Arkansas detail1.33

4 INT thrown + 4 fumbles lost (of 5) = 8 giveaways; 3 INT + 4 fumble recoveries (of 7 opponent fumbles) = 7 takeaways

Vanderbilt margin~−3 / −8

Arkansas source: ~–3 (1.7 lost / 1.2 forced per game) · Vanderbilt source: ~−7 to −8 (est.)

Vanderbilt detail~14

~14 est. giveaways (8 INT, ~6 fumbles lost); ~6–7 est. takeaways (5 INT confirmed; fumble recoveries unconfirmed)

What remains open: Vanderbilt's giveaway total is an estimate: 6 INT + 4 fumbles lost were confirmed through Week 5, plus 2 INT and 2 fumbles lost against Ole Miss in Week 6; roughly 6 takeaways through five games were confirmed (5 defensive INTs). Defensive fumble recoveries are unconfirmed, so the ~−7 to −8 margin is approximate. Points off turnovers: Arkansas 18 scored / 22 allowed (Vanderbilt source); Vanderbilt's figure is not confirmed. And the twist the Arkansas source flags: Arkansas has not won the turnover battle in any game this season — so "just play even" is not a given.
Arkansas source also notes: 4 turnovers vs Ole Miss alone; 10 in Vanderbilt's last 5 games. Vanderbilt source notes: Curtis has 5 INTs in five games with 4 turnovers in his last outing; in a projected one-score game, one short field decides it.

Field goals & field position

Both sources agree: Vanderbilt owns the one genuinely lopsided unit comparison in the game — an elite kicker with 50+ range vs. the SEC's lowest-graded punting situation. Vanderbilt's punt protection (two blocked punts) is its own vulnerability.

Arkansas · Max Gilbert

8/1172.7%
Long 55 (Vanderbilt source)
PAT12–12
NotesMissed three, incl. a 38-yarder vs Tennessee
PuntingGavin Rush: 24 punts, 41.5 avg, net punt 40.1 team; 58.7 PFF grade — last of 18 SEC punters (65th of 70 P4)
Tennessee transfer. Coach Silverfield publicly called punting "terrible" and said Rush could lose the job; backup P Connor Smith is out for season (ACL), with Jesse Ehrlich (Cal Poly transfer) the alternative. The Vanderbilt source reads Rush as "an adequate replacement in a field-position game."

Vanderbilt · Brock Taylor

4/5*Confirmed last 3 games
Long 47 (at Auburn)
2025 line13–14 (92.9%), long 51
Two-season line31/35 — 2024 Lou Groza semifinalist
PATNear-perfect career (full 2026 line unconfirmed)
PuntingTyler Ebel — season average unconfirmed; 2 blocked punts this season
*Full 2026 season FG line not located. Confirmed: 4/5 across the last 3 games (45 vs Ole Miss; 39/47/45 at Auburn; blocked at Georgia). The 37th career field goal was made recently.

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, both sources use clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

63.1% / 59.8%

Curtis / Jackson on raw completion %

The best confirmed accuracy proxy available. Adjusted completion %, on-target % and deep-ball accuracy are not publicly available for either QB.

  • Proxy set used: raw comp %, yards per attempt (Curtis 7.4 vs Jackson 6.4–6.5), ESPN Total QBR (Curtis 57.9, 11th in the SEC; Jackson 46.9, 15th) and EPA per dropback (Curtis 0.14; Jackson not published).
  • Curtis's volatility: 5 INTs in five games and four turnovers vs Ole Miss (strip-sack fumble plus two tipped-ball INTs) — the best passer by every proxy, and the most volatile.
  • Rushing proxy: no yards-after-contact or explosive-run data is publicly available; yards per carry and national ranks are used. Neither team can run — Vanderbilt 119.8 ypg (118th) managed 2.8 per carry at Auburn; Arkansas 99.0 ypg (130th) at 3.0 per carry.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed and sacks generated; Vanderbilt has a sack in 10 straight games, while Arkansas is 124th in havoc allowed.
Jackson's best game: 24/36, 309 yds, 1 TD + 2 rush TD vs Tulsa; his team led #15 Tennessee 14–7 in Q3 last week. Curtis missed the Georgia game with a knee bruise.

Injury report

Union of both sources' injury tables, from Thursday's SEC availability reports. The 90-minutes-before-kickoff report can still change statuses. Vanderbilt's list is heavier — and the Berlowitz absence is the most consequential injury on either side.

Arkansas

PlayerPosStatusMatchup impact
Caden Kitler*CUncertainBiggest Arkansas swing if out — broken bone, benched at half vs Tennessee
Maddox LassiterTEOut — seasonDepth; the passing game runs through Marshall regardless
J'Lynn Allen**DLOut — seasonRotation loss on the DL
Connor SmithPOut — season (ACL)Forces reliance on struggling Rush / Ehrlich
Braydon LeeDBOutThins the secondary vs Sherrill
Josiah ClemonsOLDoubtfulMore OL shuffling for a unit that has allowed 16 sacks
Gavin GarretsonTEDoubtfulDepth; Arkansas doesn't feature the position
Antonio JordanWRProbableCould be the needed second option behind Marshall

*Status conflict: the Arkansas source lists Kitler as not on the official report — status from his own "up in the air" comments — while the Vanderbilt source says he is available despite battling injury (per Silverfield). **Vanderbilt source spells the DL "J'ynn Allen".

Vanderbilt

PlayerPosStatusMatchup impact
Blaze BerlowitzQBOut — ~1 month (collarbone, surgery)Biggest structural risk: any Curtis injury leaves an untested QB2 (roster lists Jack Elliott)
Dontae CarterSDoubtful (practice injury)Thins the back end of the #32 coverage unit vs Marshall
Gunner GivensOLOut — season (hip)Season-long loss on a line ranked #126 in pass blocking
Aaron BryantDLOut — season (ACL)Interior depth loss — helps Arkansas's run game breathe
Mitchell SmithOLOut (knee procedure)Second OL out; protection depth is the concern
Jaylin LackeyCBOutSecondary depleted vs Marshall
Jamison CurtisLBOutThins the second level
Kahden SmithWROutWR depth
Nikhil JeffersonDLOutDL depth on a thin line
Brian Allen Jr.EDGEQuestionablePressure is Vanderbilt's identity; a missing edge blunts it
Hayden BrayDLQuestionableInterior depth against a 3.0-per-carry run game
Martel HightCBProbablePositive: starting corner expected back — key vs Marshall
Kayleb BarnettWRDismissed (off-field)Depth receiver loss; not an injury

QB Jared Curtis is not on the injury report — full go. Jared Curtis missed the Georgia game with a bruised knee; any re-aggravation is now un-backstopped.

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 6, compiled October 14–17, 2026. Neither source page linked URLs, so source names are listed as text. Injury statuses and betting lines can change before kickoff.

  1. Arkansas official 2026 season statistics PDF (arkansasrazorbacks.com, as of Oct 12)Team and individual stats used by both sources.
  2. puntandrally.com team profiles (updated Oct 15)Vanderbilt averages and efficiency ranks, cross-checked against game scores.
  3. On3 player pagesJackson individual stats; Curtis background.
  4. Tennessean (Oct 5, Oct 14, Oct 16)Kickoff, TV, venue, line; Curtis game accounts; SEC availability reports.
  5. 247Sports / HawgSports (Oct 15)Thursday SEC availability report summaries.
  6. SportsJaw / CBS Sports (Oct 14)Preview, QB status, model projection (Vanderbilt 27–20).
  7. Bleacher Nation / Data Skrive (Oct 14)National ranks and efficiency context.
  8. BetMGM / ESPN / FanDuel lines (Oct 15–17)Spread, total and moneyline (see line note in The call).
  9. docsports (Oct 12)Vanderbilt team stats and confirmed turnover pieces.
  10. therebelwalk (Oct 8) / vucommodores.com postgame notes (Oct 10)Vanderbilt stats, Heard's 5th interception, game context.
  11. ESPN Total QBR via volswire (Oct 11)Curtis 57.9 (11th SEC), Jackson 46.9 (15th).
  12. Action Network (Oct 10)Rushing success rate allowed; 6–1 series under trend.
  13. swtimes.com (Oct 14, Oct 17)Arkansas coaches' quotes on Curtis; game-week coverage.
  14. 1075thegame (Oct 14)Barnett dismissal reporting.
  15. Vanderbilt Hustler (Sep 26)Vanderbilt rushing struggles at Auburn.
  16. stayaliveinpower5Brock Taylor career background (Groza semifinalist).
Data gaps & limitations. (1) Brock Taylor's full 2026 FG line was not located — only the 2025 line (13–14, 92.9%, long 51) and recent game-log makes (39, 47, 45 at Auburn; 45 vs Ole Miss) are confirmed. (2) Vanderbilt's official cumulative stats PDF was not located; its averages come from puntandrally (Oct 15) and were cross-checked against game scores, not an official PDF. (3) No adjusted completion %, on-target % or deep-ball accuracy exists publicly for either QB — comp %, YPA, QBR and EPA are proxies. (4) No yards-after-contact or explosive-run data is publicly available; YPC is the proxy. (5) Vanderbilt's turnover totals are estimates built from confirmed pieces; defensive fumble recoveries are unconfirmed, so the ~−7 to −8 margin is approximate. (6) Arkansas's defensive TFL total was missing from the scraped official stats. (7) Vanderbilt's QB2 behind Curtis is unconfirmed, as are Taylor's full-season PAT line and Vanderbilt's net punting average. (8) Some Vanderbilt defensive figures are through five games rather than six.