Auburn at Georgia Preview

The call

Georgia owns the cleaner quarterback, the turnover profile and a decisive trench mismatch. Auburn’s ball-hawking secondary, the nation’s fastest tempo and a bye week of preparation are its best counters.

Projected final

34—13

Georgia by twenty-one

Confidence: High on the winner · Medium on the score — the more conservative read (the Georgia-side view rated the call Medium-High). Georgia covers the −19 spread; the 47-point total lands under 49.5. Auburn has not topped 13 points in Athens since 2009.

Why it lands there

01The trenches are a blowout. Georgia’s run game (211.8 yds/game, 6.3 ypc) faces the SEC’s worst run defense (149.0 yds/game allowed) — without suspended sack co-leader Xavier Atkins. The other way, Auburn’s line allows the SEC’s most sacks (18; 3.6/game) and near-most TFLs (6.6/game), now down starter Tai Buster, against Georgia’s 17-sack front.
02The turnover gap. Georgia is +6 on the season with 55–62 points scored off turnovers against 19 allowed (the sources disagree on the scored total). Brown has thrown 7 interceptions against 7 touchdowns and taken 18 sacks. One early Auburn mistake can end the competitive phase of this game.
03Auburn can’t finish drives. The SEC’s worst red-zone offense (70.6%) meets a defense allowing 13.4–14.0 points/game. Auburn has never scored multiple touchdowns at Georgia in the Smart era and has not topped 13 points there since 2009.
04Kicking reliability. Woodring (6/7, 85.7%, an SEC-record 206–208 straight PATs) is the surest weapon in a field-position game. McPherson (4/6, 66.7%) has been shaky, and Auburn’s special-teams counter — its block units (a blocked FG and a blocked punt returned for a TD vs Vanderbilt) — is offset by losing the field-position battle on kickoffs.
05The quarterback gap. Stockton: 76.6% completions, 10.5 yards/attempt, 14 TDs to 2 INTs. Brown: 65.4%, 6.6 Y/A, 7-to-7. Golesh says Stockton “doesn’t make a ton of mistakes”; Auburn’s offensive coordinator publicly questioned Brown’s adjustment to SEC speed.

−19Spread: Georgia (BetMGM, Oct 16; Auburn-side listed −19.5 Friday)

49.5Over/Under

47Projected total — under

+21Projected margin — Georgia covers

Georgia’s concerns: safety KJ Bolden is doubtful, thinning the middle against Brown’s scrambling, and a post-Alabama emotional letdown is a real risk in a rivalry game. Auburn’s upset path: the nation’s fastest tempo (a play every 21.5 seconds) rattles Georgia’s communication early; the ball-hawking secondary (6 INTs, T-2nd SEC) forces rare Stockton mistakes; a bye week of preparation meets a flat Georgia. It requires Brown’s cleanest game against the best defense he has faced — a long shot, and the projection reflects it.

Sources: Auburn Wire · georgiadogs.com official statistics · 247Sports · Sports-Reference · On3 · BetMGM (line) · DawgNation · official SEC availability reports (Oct 14–15)

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Both team-centric views agreed Georgia holds every edge; where they differed on degree or detail, both reads are shown. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Stockton vs Auburn pass D

Georgia — decisive

Gunner Stockton (UGA)

Completions95/124 · 76.6%

Yards / attempt10.5

TD–INT14–2

Passer rating198.6–198.9*

Team pass efficiency187.9 (5th FBS, 1st SEC)

Career TD/INT ratio4.56:1 (career best)

Auburn coverage

Pass yds allowed208.2/g (8th SEC)

Opp. pass efficiency115.2 (30th FBS, 5th SEC)

INT6 (T-2nd SEC)

LeadersAndre Jordan Jr. 2; 4 others with 1

BreakupsMelendez 4 (team high)

Read: Stockton is completing passes at a school-record pace, and Golesh says he “doesn’t make a ton of mistakes.” Auburn’s one plausible disruption lever is its ball-hawking secondary — 6 INTs, tied for second in the SEC. *The two sources disagree slightly on his rating (198.6 vs 198.9); see Sources.

Sports-Reference · georgiadogs.com · Auburn Wire · 247Sports

Brown vs Georgia pass D

Georgia — big

Byrum Brown (AUB)

Completions104/159 · 65.4%

Yards / attempt6.6

TD–INT7–7 (SEC-high INTs)

Yds / completion10.1 (120th FBS)

Passer rating126.9

Sacks taken18 (most in SEC)

Pressure64 pressures; clean 67% (PFF)

Georgia coverage

Pass yds allowed186.8–187.2/g (5th SEC)*

Opp. pass efficiency114.3 (26th FBS, 4th SEC)

Sacks17 (19th FBS)

INT4

Cole2.5 sacks; team-high 14 pressures

At Alabama4 sacks

Read: Brown leads the SEC in interceptions (tied with LSU’s Sam Leavitt) and sacks taken, and Georgia’s front is built to force the pass-first script in which he has struggled — Auburn’s OC publicly questioned his adjustment to SEC speed this week. Auburn’s one schematic lever is the nation’s fastest tempo (a play every 21.5 seconds), which can stress Georgia’s communication and substitutions.

On3 · RotoWire · Auburn Wire · georgiadogs.com · 247Sports

Georgia RBs vs Auburn front

Georgia — big

Georgia rushing

Yards / game211.8 (4th SEC; 29th FBS)

Yards / carry6.3

Phillips Jr.37/280/1 · 7.6 ypc

Walker30/203 · 6.8 ypc

Frazier26/211/5 · 8.1 ypc — possible return

BowensOUT (35/124/6)

Auburn front

Rush allowed149.0/g — SEC worst*

Vs Tennessee’s Bishop220 / 202* yds · 3 TD

Vs Florida’s Baugh162 yds · 3 TD

AtkinsSuspended — OUT

TFL7.6/game (12th FBS)

Read: the widest ground-game gap in this preview. Auburn’s SEC-worst run defense loses its best second-level defender; Georgia is four-deep with every healthy back at 6.8+ yards per carry — Phillips ran for 120 on 17 carries in his first start vs Alabama, and Georgia just rushed for 206 at Alabama. *SEC rank (15th vs 14th) and Bishop’s yardage (220 vs 202) differ by source; see Sources.

georgiadogs.com · Auburn Wire · 247Sports · DawgNation

Auburn RBs vs Georgia front

Georgia — decisive

Auburn rushing

Yards / game180.0 (9th SEC; 50th FBS)

Leading rusherBrown (QB) — 344 yds, 4 TD

CommitteeCobb / Mabson II / Washington

Standout backNone emerged

Georgia front

Rush allowed57.4–74.7/g (1st–2nd SEC)*

Per carry2.5 yds (5th FBS)

Wilson33 tackles (LB)

ColeTeam sack leader; Bednarik Player of the Week

Read: Auburn’s rushing attack runs through its quarterback, and Georgia’s front is the SEC’s best at erasing exactly that — the best run defense Auburn will see all season. *The Auburn-side source gives a 57.4–74.7 range because its sources reported slightly different totals; the Georgia-side source lists 74.7 (5th FBS).

Auburn Wire · georgiadogs.com · 247Sports

Georgia WR/TE vs Auburn DBs

Georgia — slight to moderate

Georgia pass catchers

Pass offense263.0/g (6th SEC)

Yds / completion13.6

WRsHumphreys, Taylor, Roldan, Dandridge Jr.

TEsWilliams & Reddell

OutCanion · Blackshear

HighlightsTaylor 4/110/1 vs Oklahoma; Roldan 2/57/1 vs Vanderbilt; Humphreys 3/43/1 vs Alabama

Auburn DBs

Pass yds allowed208.2/g (8th SEC)

INT6 (T-2nd SEC)

StatusAuburn’s best defensive unit

Read: the matchup the two views disagree on most in degree. The Auburn-side read sees only a slight Georgia edge against Auburn’s best defensive unit — the one spot Auburn can plausibly disrupt Georgia’s script. The Georgia-side read sees a moderate edge for Georgia’s depth pieces. Both agree the edge belongs to Georgia.

georgiadogs.com · Auburn Wire · 247Sports

Auburn WR/TE vs Georgia DBs

Georgia — slight to moderate

Auburn pass catchers

Pass offense219.8/g (13th SEC; 80th FBS)

Singleton7/54 vs Tennessee; 100th career catch

Nimrod5/52/1 vs Vanderbilt

SpencerListed among top targets

TEBoardingham (TD vs Tennessee); Herring OUT

Georgia DBs

Bolden (S/DB)DOUBTFUL (calf)

Green (S)OUT (ankle)

Unit rankTop-5 SEC pass defense by yardage

Read: Green’s absence plus Bolden’s Thursday downgrade thin the safety room — Auburn’s narrowest passing window — though Auburn ranks only 13th in the SEC in passing. The Georgia-side view calls Bolden the one concern in an otherwise healthy, deep secondary; the Auburn-side view stresses both absences together.

On3 · Auburn Wire · DawgNation · SEC availability reports

Georgia OL vs Auburn DL

Georgia — solid

Georgia protection

Sacks allowed1.0/game (T-1st SEC, 17th FBS)

TFL allowed2.67/game (7th FBS, 1st SEC)

At Alabama1 sack allowed; 206 rushing yards

Harrison (OL)Cleared — removed from report

Auburn rush D-line

Sacks14 (T-6th SEC) · 2.8/game (24th FBS)

TFL7.6/game (12th FBS)

LeadersAtkins 3, Melendez 3, Mathis 2, Womack 2

AtkinsSuspended — pass rush loses a co-leader

Read: Georgia’s line owned Alabama’s front; Harrison’s clearance is more good news. Without Atkins, Auburn’s havoc unit loses one of its two most productive pieces — the Atkins absence is the single biggest of this game.

georgiadogs.com · Auburn Wire · 247Sports

Auburn OL vs Georgia DL

Georgia — big

Auburn protection

Sacks allowed18 — most in SEC (3.6/game, 135th FBS)

TFL allowed6.6/game (124th FBS)

Buster (OL)OUT — unit thinned further

Georgia pressure

Sacks17 (2.83/game, 19th FBS)

TFL6.3/game

LeadersWilson 3; Cole 2.5; Harris 2

ColeTeam-high 14 pressures

At Alabama4 sacks; pressure rises when Auburn’s guards get stressed

Read: the clearest trench mismatch on the board — the SEC’s worst pass protection against a front that rang up four sacks at Alabama. Tempo is Auburn’s only counterweight.

Auburn Wire · georgiadogs.com · 247Sports

Possession pressure

Georgia’s margin is confirmed on both sides. Auburn’s takeaway production is documented by the Auburn-side source but was not independently confirmed by the Georgia-side source.

Georgia margin+6

3rd SEC · +1.0/game (12th FBS)

Auburn margin−1

T-8th SEC (Auburn-side) · −0.20/game, 9th SEC (Georgia-side)

Georgia takeaways11

~1.8/game: ~1.2 fumble recoveries + ~0.7 INT per game (Georgia-side); INT production unconfirmed (Auburn-side)

Auburn takeaways6 INTs

T-2nd SEC (Auburn-side; unconfirmed Georgia-side); incl. a pick-six vs Southern Miss

Giveaways. Georgia: 2 interceptions thrown (Stockton); ~0.8 giveaways/game, 5 total miscues — and the Bulldogs recovered all 4 of their own fumbles at Alabama, where they also forced a fumble on the opening drive. Auburn: Brown’s 7 interceptions — 3 against Baylor, 4 across his three SEC games (Florida 1, Vanderbilt 1, Tennessee 2) — plus at least 2 fumbles lost (Cobb vs Southern Miss; Brown vs Tennessee). Brown’s 18 sacks taken fuel strip opportunities.

Points off turnovers. Georgia: 55 scored / 19 allowed (Auburn-side) vs 62 scored / 19 allowed (Georgia-side) — the allowed figure matches; the scored total differs. Auburn’s points-off-turnovers figure was not published.

Where the sources disagreed: points scored off turnovers (55 vs 62); Auburn’s turnover-margin rank (T-8th SEC vs 9th SEC); Auburn’s interception production (6 INTs, T-2nd SEC per the Auburn-side source — not confirmed by the Georgia-side source). This is the cleanest statistical edge on the board, and Auburn’s one counterweight is real: its secondary has the six picks, so Stockton’s rare mistakes are the Tigers’ most plausible path to extra possessions.

Sources: 247Sports (margin) · Field Street Forum / Georgia sports communications (points off turnovers, 11 takeaways, 5 miscues) · Auburn Wire · On3 / RotoWire (Brown game logs)

Field goals & field position

Georgia holds the reliability edge (85.7% vs 66.7%); Auburn owns the longer make and the block game. Punting cannot be compared cleanly: the Auburn-side figures are gross, the Georgia-side figures are net.

Georgia · Peyton Woodring (Sr)

6/785.7%
Long 49

PAT35/35 · SEC-record 206–208* straight makes

Career FG65/74 (87.8%) — 88.7% per Auburn-side*

Kickoffs40 kickoffs, 30 TB (Auburn-side) / 45 kickoffs, 34 TB (Georgia-side)*

Punting (Drew Miller)48.8 gross / 39.13 net (85th FBS); 12 punts, long 65, 7 of 50+, 4 inside the 20, 5 TBs

ReturnsKick returns 27.29 avg (17th FBS); punt returns 9.75 avg — top returner Tyriq Green is OUT

*Exact attempt count is provisional — reconstructed from game logs (Arkansas 38; Oklahoma 45, 49; Vanderbilt 39; Alabama 2-of-3). PAT-streak, career-% and kickoff figures differ by source; see Sources.

Auburn · Alex McPherson (Sr)

4/666.7%
Long 55 (career)

PAT16/16

Career FG40/45 (88.9%) entering 2026

Notable kicks55-yard career-long make vs Southern Miss; missed a 60-yard attempt short vs Vanderbilt (2026 long unconfirmed per Georgia-side)

Punting (Hudson Kaak)41.6 gross (7 punts, 291 yds vs Tennessee; 3 inside the 20) / 40.65 net (49th FBS)

Block gameCody Sigler blocked a FG vs Vanderbilt; a blocked punt was returned for a TD by Cade Carlson vs Vanderbilt · punt-return defense −1.0 yds/return (4th FBS)

*4/6 FG and 16/16 PAT come from Ourlads rather than an official Auburn game log; cross-checked for Weeks 2–4 via Sportradar box scores (3/4 in that span). Auburn kickoff/touchback data not published.

Read: Woodring is the most reliable kicker in this matchup, and Miller flips the field — but McPherson gives Auburn the bigger leg. Auburn figures to punt far more often than Georgia, and in a game Georgia should control territorially, the kicking gap compounds rather than equalizes.

Sources: georgiadogs.com · Auburn Wire · FanSided (McPherson line, post-Week 4, updated with the Tennessee box score) · Ourlads · Sportradar box scores · DawgNation

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

Measure	Gunner Stockton (UGA)	Byrum Brown (AUB)
Completions	95/124 · 76.6% (school-record pace)	104/159 · 65.4%
Passing yards	1,298 (10.5 Y/A)	1,055 (6.6 Y/A)
TD / INT	14 / 2	7 / 7 (SEC-high INT total)
Passer rating	198.6–198.9 (sources differ)	126.9
Yards / completion	13.7	10.1 (120th FBS — a dink-and-dunk profile)
Pressure	OL allowed 1 sack at Alabama; 1.0/game (T-1st SEC)	Sacked 18 (most in SEC); pressured 64 times; kept clean on 67% of dropbacks (PFF via Auburn Wire)
Rushing	26 att, 134 yds (5.2 avg), 1 TD; career-high 97 rush yds at Arkansas; 6/12/1 TD vs Alabama	344 yds, 4 TD — Auburn’s most productive runner

10.5 vs 6.6

Yards per attempt — Stockton vs Brown

The widest accuracy-proxy gap on the board. Stockton was sharp at Alabama (18/22, 249 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, plus a rushing TD); Brown’s 10.1 yards per completion (120th FBS) is a checkdown-heavy profile that rarely stresses coverage downfield.

No public on-target, adjusted-completion or deep-ball rates were found for either quarterback. Completion %, yards/attempt, passer rating, yards/completion and PFF pressure data serve as the ball-placement proxies.
Rushing upside: Georgia 211.8 yds/game at 6.3 yds/carry with three healthy backs at 6.8–8.1 ypc (longs of 54 and 59); Auburn 180.0 yds/game with Brown as the engine. Georgia’s run defense sits at 57.4–74.7 ypg allowed (1st–2nd SEC); Auburn’s at 149.0 (SEC worst).
Projected rushing edge: Georgia runs for 200+; Auburn is likely held under 130.
Efficiency: Georgia 7.85 yds/play (2nd FBS, 1st SEC), 54.7% on 3rd down, 90.6% red-zone scoring — vs Auburn’s 5.71 yds/play (83rd FBS), 47.3% on 3rd down and 70.6% red-zone offense (128th FBS, worst in the SEC). Georgia’s defense: 4.2 yds/play allowed (7th FBS, 1st SEC), 35.6% 3rd-down defense, 14.0 pts/game allowed; Auburn’s: 4.76 yds/play allowed (29th FBS), 32.1% 3rd-down defense, 92.9% red-zone trips allowed (117th FBS).
No official yards-after-contact or explosive-run data was found for either team; yards per carry and opponent run-defense rankings are used as proxies.

Sources: 247Sports · Sports-Reference · On3 / RotoWire · Auburn Wire (PFF pressure data) · georgiadogs.com

Injuries & availability

The union of both sources’ injury tables, deduplicated. From the official SEC availability reports (Oct 14), with Thursday/Friday updates via DawgNation (the Georgia-side view used the Thursday, Oct. 15 report).

Auburn

Player	Pos	Status	Matchup impact
Xavier Atkins	LB	OUT	The single biggest absence in the game: suspended (non-injury) — not with the team, not practicing. Tied for Auburn’s sack lead (3), second in tackles, and has an interception. Guts Auburn’s pass rush and run fits against Georgia’s ground game.
Hunter Herring	TE	OUT	Depth loss at tight end in an already light rotation; Arlis Boardingham, who scored against Tennessee, carries the position.
Tai Buster	OL	OUT	Compounds Auburn’s already league-worst pass protection (3.6 sacks allowed/game), directly in front of Georgia’s 17-sack pass rush.

Georgia

Player	Pos	Status	Matchup impact
KJ Bolden	S / DB	DOUBTFUL	Georgia’s biggest loss: 22 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT; a projected 2027 first-round pick. Downgraded on Thursday (calf); unlikely to play, thinning the middle against Brown’s scrambling.
Chauncey Bowens	RB	OUT	Lower leg / calf — Lisfranc surgery, likely out for the season. Loses a team-high 6 rushing TDs, but at 3.5 ypc he is the backfield’s least efficient back; Phillips Jr., Walker, and possibly Frazier more than cover the loss.
Dante Dowdell	RB	OUT	Multiple injuries (collarbone / lung / arm). Further trims the backfield, though Georgia’s available backs all average 6.8+ ypc.
Isiah Canion	WR	OUT	Right leg / knee bone bruise — 4th straight game out. Receiving depth loss; Dandridge and Humphreys carry the load against Auburn’s ball-hawking secondary.
Thomas Blackshear	WR	OUT	Shoulder / collarbone. Second receiver out, narrowing Georgia’s rotation out wide.
Amaris Williams	OLB	OUT	Knee (ACL, spring) — out for the season. Rotational edge loss on a defense with 17 sacks; Georgia’s depth should cover it against Auburn’s patchwork line.
Tyriq Green	DB / S	OUT	Ankle — 4th straight game out. Loses Georgia’s top kick returner and a depth piece in the secondary; combined with Bolden’s status, leaves the safety room thin — Auburn’s best, if narrow, window in the passing game.
Nate Frazier	RB	POSSIBLE RETURN	Missed four games with a rib injury and did not play at Alabama, but is off the injury report. At 8.1 ypc with 5 TDs, his return would fully weaponize Georgia’s run game against Auburn’s weakest unit — though his true availability remains uncertain.
Marcus Harrison	OL	CLEARED	Removed from the report — good news for an offensive line that allowed one sack at Alabama.

Injury read: the absences tilt the game further Georgia’s way. Atkins’ suspension removes the one Auburn defender who could blunt Georgia’s ground game; Buster’s absence deepens Auburn’s worst unit against Georgia’s best. Georgia’s losses are real but covered — Bolden is the one that could matter if Brown’s legs extend drives.

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 6, compiled October 17, 2026. Injury status and the betting line can change before kickoff. Neither source provided URLs, so sources are listed by name — no links were invented.

Auburn WireAuburn defensive figures (Oct 7); availability updates; PFF pressure data on Brown; Buster status.
georgiadogs.comOfficial Georgia team statistics.
247SportsPost–Week 6 stat rankings (Oct 14, 2026).
Sports-ReferenceStockton’s 6-game line; per-game giveaway/takeaway splits.
On3Brown’s season line and game log; availability updates.
RotoWireBrown game logs.
Field Street Forum / Georgia sports communicationsGeorgia’s takeaways, miscues, and points off turnovers.
fieldstforumQuick-comparison for Auburn offensive rankings.
DawgNationAvailability updates; weather.
CoversWeather.
BetMGMBetting line (Friday per the Auburn-side view; Oct 16 per the Georgia-side view).
FanSidedMcPherson’s line (post-Week 4, updated with the Tennessee box score).
OurladsMcPherson’s 2026 totals (4/6 FG, 16/16 PAT); cross-checked for Weeks 2–4 via Sportradar box scores.
SportradarGame box scores (McPherson cross-check).
SEC availability reportsOfficial injury reports dated Oct 14–15, 2026.

Cross-source discrepancies

Spread: Georgia −19.5 (BetMGM Friday, Auburn-side) vs Georgia −19 (BetMGM Oct 16, Georgia-side). The more recent −19 is used throughout; the line may have moved.
Points off turnovers, Georgia scored: 55 vs 62; both sources agree on 19 allowed. Auburn’s figure was not published by either source.
Woodring’s consecutive-PAT record: 206 vs 208; both call it an SEC record.
Woodring career FG: 88.7% vs 65/74 (87.8%).
Woodring kickoffs: 40 kickoffs / 30 touchbacks vs 45 / 34.
Auburn rush-defense SEC rank: 15th vs 14th; both sources call it the SEC’s worst.
Yards allowed to Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop: 220 vs 202 (3 TDs in both).
Stockton passer rating: 198.9 vs 198.6.
Georgia pass yards allowed/game: 187.2 vs 186.8.
Georgia scoring defense: a 13.4–14.0 range vs a single 14.0 (10th FBS, 1st SEC); Georgia rush defense as a 57.4–74.7 range vs 74.7 (5th FBS).

Data gaps & limitations

Woodring’s attempts: the 6-of-7 field-goal line was reconstructed from game logs, so the exact season attempt count is provisional.
McPherson’s 2026 line (4/6 FG, 16/16 PAT) comes from Ourlads, not an official Auburn game log; cross-checked for Weeks 2–4 via Sportradar (3/4 in that span). Auburn kickoff/touchback data and a confirmed 2026 long field goal were not available.
Georgia takeaways: the Bulldogs’ exact season interception total forced was not confirmed in the Auburn-side view (Georgia-side lists ~0.7 INT/game within 11 total takeaways).
Georgia defensive TFL, pass-breakup totals and PFF coverage grades were not published in the sources used (Georgia-side gives a 6.3 TFL/game rate).
Auburn’s full fumbles-lost total was not published; its margin is listed as −1 (T-8th SEC) or −0.20/game (9th SEC).
QB accuracy metrics: adjusted completion %, on-target rate, and deep-ball accuracy are unavailable for both quarterbacks; standard efficiency stats, yards per completion, and PFF pressure data serve as proxies.
Rushing detail: yards-after-contact and explosive-run rates were not published for either team; per-carry averages and long runs are used as proxies.
Efficiency rates: Auburn’s yards per play was not published in the Auburn-side view (Georgia-side lists 5.71, 83rd FBS); per-game yardage is used where noted.
Auburn receiver totals: season yardage by individual Auburn wide receiver was not fully published; game-log highlights are used.
Nate Frazier’s true availability is unknown — he is off the injury report but has not played since Week 3.
The betting line (Georgia −19, O/U 49.5) is from BetMGM on Oct 16 and may have moved by kickoff.